Middle East Realignment: UAE-Saudi Rivalry Undermines Abraham Accords and Regional Stability

Indian Express - Opinion · 23 May 2026 · 2 min read
Prelims · International relations Mains · GS2 International relations High relevance

The UAE-Saudi rivalry is reshaping Middle East geopolitics, rendering the Abraham Accords irrelevant and creating new strategic axes involving Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, with implications for global oil markets and India's energy security.

Key points

Abraham Accords, brokered by the US in 2020, aimed to normalize Israel-Arab relations but have become irrelevant due to the emerging UAE-Israel axis versus Saudi-led bloc including Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan.

UAE's OPEC exit is a direct challenge to Saudi dominance, signaling its intent to maximize oil revenues independently, which could destabilize global oil prices and affect India's energy imports.

[GS2-International Relations] The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab chokepoints are now contested, with UAE-Israel supporting secessionist movements in Yemen and Somalia to control these critical maritime routes.

Saudi Arabia has countered by forming a defense pact with Pakistan, potentially extending nuclear umbrella coverage, while Turkey aligns with Riyadh on regional issues like Somaliland.

[GS3-Economy] The UAE-Israel military alliance includes sharing Iron Dome technology, altering regional power dynamics and arms trade patterns, with implications for India's defense partnerships in the Middle East.

The Southern Transitional Council in Yemen, backed by UAE, controls strategic territory near Bab al-Mandab, threatening Saudi interests and potentially disrupting Red Sea shipping lanes vital for India's trade.

Iran's targeting of Gulf energy infrastructure during recent conflicts has further complicated regional stability, impacting oil supplies despite UAE-Saudi tensions.

This realignment connects to India's energy security (GS3) as 60% of its oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vulnerable to Middle East conflicts and shifting alliances.

Way Forward: India should diversify energy sources through long-term contracts with Russia and Central Asia, accelerate renewable energy transitions under the ISA framework, and deepen naval diplomacy to secure critical chokepoints.

Key terms

Abraham Accords

A series of US-brokered agreements (2020) normalizing relations between Israel and Arab states like UAE and Bahrain. For UPSC, it represents shifting West Asia geopolitics where traditional Arab-Israel conflicts give way to economic-military alliances, with implications for India's diaspora and energy ties.

Strait of Hormuz

A critical maritime chokepoint between Oman and Iran, through which 30% of global oil shipments pass. Its strategic control is vital for GS3 (energy security) and GS2 (international relations), especially given India's dependence on Gulf oil imports.

OPEC

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, coordinating oil production policies among members. UAE's exit signals declining cartel influence, relevant for GS3 (economy) as it may lead to volatile oil prices affecting India's fiscal deficit and inflation management.

Southern Transitional Council

A UAE-backed secessionist group in Yemen controlling Bab al-Mandab Strait. Its UPSC relevance lies in demonstrating how proxy wars (GS2-IR) impact global trade routes, with India's $200 billion annual trade dependent on Red Sea stability.